Horse racing odds

On horses that are supported in the market — money coming in, price shortening — BOG adds nothing, because the SP is lower than the price you took. Best Odds Guaranteed is one of the most powerful tools available to horse racing punters, and it is routinely undervalued. Using the exchange as a benchmark — even if you ultimately bet with a bookmaker — is one of the most effective habits a punter can develop. The practical approach for most punters is to use both. If you back at 6.0 (5/1) and pay 5 per cent commission on your winnings, your effective odds are 5.75 (approximately 19/4). On a Monday afternoon novice hurdle at a minor track, liquidity is thin.

And some operators apply BOG only to bets placed after a certain time in the morning, which means very early ante-post-style wagers do not qualify. Most bookmakers cap BOG payouts — some at a maximum new betting sites enhanced payout of 500 pounds, others at a maximum uplift of a certain number of odds points. On horses that drift — less money than expected, price lengthening — BOG gives you the benefit of the higher SP.

Where a bookmaker might offer 5/1 on a horse with a 120 per cent book, the exchange might show 5.5 (or 9/2 in fractional terms) on the same runner with a total market overround of 103 per cent. When bookmakers extend place terms on big handicaps — paying five or six places instead of four — they compensate by widening the margin on the place element of each-way bets. At the lower end, you find small-field Flat races — Group 1 contests with five or six runners where the form is well established and bookmakers compete aggressively on the headline price of the favourite. The difference between 3/1 and 7/2 is not dramatic on a single bet, but across 200 bets over a season it represents dozens of units of profit or loss. Checking the overround before you bet is not something most punters do, but it takes less than a minute with a calculator or an odds comparison site.

The value of BOG depends on how much Starting Prices drift from the early prices. That decline puts pressure on bookmakers to attract and retain bettors. It is a one-way ratchet in the punter’s favour — a free option on upward price movement with no downside risk. Check the exchange price on your selection before placing with a bookmaker. When should you use the exchange, and when should you use a bookmaker? There is a subtlety that experienced exchange users understand and newcomers often miss.

Horse Racing Odds Comparison — More on this topic at horse racing bookmakers. Yet the majority of bettors place their bets with whichever app they last used, at whatever price happens to be on screen, without checking whether a better number is available elsewhere. @ScottyPick6 Scotty thank you so much for the winnings from the Saturday webinar. Biggest payout of my life! Took down that LP5 @BelmontStakes today! This includes first time starters.

A few bookmakers restrict BOG to races shown on ITV or feature meetings, excluding the smaller afternoon cards where drifts are more common. That means BOG triggers on a meaningful proportion of bets, and the average uplift when it does trigger is typically between half a point and two full points of odds. Research on UK racing suggests that around 35 to 40 per cent of runners drift to a higher SP than their morning price.

It is the bookmaker’s theoretical profit margin before a single bet is settled. In practice, they always sum to more — typically between 110 and 130 per cent for horse racing — and that excess is the overround. In a perfectly fair market with no margin, the implied probabilities of all runners in a race would sum to exactly 100 per cent. Understanding those differences is where value lives. The bookmaker margin is built into every price, but how wide that margin is varies enormously between operators, between race types, and between the fixed-odds market and the betting exchange.

If you bet at a bookmaker with a consistently higher overround, you need a higher strike rate just to break even. The worst overrounds appear in ante-post markets, where the uncertainty justifies — in the bookmaker’s view — margins that can reach extraordinary levels. The overround also tells you something about the race itself. The overround is 5.9 per cent, meaning the bookmaker has built a theoretical edge of just under 6 per cent into the market.

If Bookmaker A is running a 115 per cent book on a race and Bookmaker B is running a 125 per cent book, Bookmaker A is systematically offering better value across the entire field. The 120 per cent book means the prices across the entire field are compressed, which means every price is slightly lower than it should be in a fair market. A significant share of that GGY exists because punters accept worse odds than they need to.